12/21/18 - NFL Week 16 - Saturday Preview

   

   After a long week of no Thursday football, we get treated to two games on Saturday.  Let's get right into it. I'll look at each game separately and give some thoughts on the two game slate since there are some big GPPs out there. While doing so I'll touch on the primetime showdown slate as well giving our low owned plays that can differentiate you from the field.

Washington @ Tennessee - (37 over/under)

   
   If this game was on the main slate we would skip it all together. The main takeaway here is whether or not we think Derrick Henry can keep it up.  The Titans are a heavy favorite so the game script is surely on his side.  On the two game slate I think you have to plug him in and try to differentiate elsewhere, possibly even at QB with Marcus Mariota. I would think that he could be around 20% owned with people flocking to the QBs in the evening game or getting cute with Josh Johnson.  Pairing up Mariota with Henry and not investing in a Tennessee wide receiver could lead to a unique lineup build.

     On the other side with the Redskins, I wouldn't hate you if you take a flyer on Josh Johnson or Chris Thompson.  It feels like the winning lineup could have a low owned play from the Skins on their team.  Just be careful investing too much because that Tennessee defense is legit and so is the Vegas implied team total of 13.5. 

Baltimore @ Los Angeles - (44 over/under)

     
   While I am a huge Ravens fan and they have been running teams into the ground with Lamar Jackson and company, I have a weird feeling this game is a snap back to reality for Baltimore.  Ravens are on a short week and flying east coast to West coast which historically has shown to take a toll on the road team.  Combine that with a solid San Diego defense against a one dimentional Ravens team just sets up for a let down.

     Again with the short slate and showdown slate you can't just fade the Ravens because MattyIce said so.  You can't fade three teams on a two game slate unfortunately.  You'll have to go to the run game of the Ravens, but to differentiate take a look at Willie Snead at WR who has been an under the radar target monster for Lamar's nonexistent passing game.  On either slate I wouldn't fault you for taking a flyer on TE Marc Andrews as the tight ends on this slate are horrific.

     Finally, the best place to load up your lineups will involve filling in studs from the Chargers.  It looks like Gordon and Allen are going to try and play, while Ekeler looks to be out.  The caveat for these stud offensive players is the Ravens D is no slouch (only the best in the league).  Again, it's not a full slate so you aren't fading the studs.  I'll be heavily invested in Gordon, Allen and Rivers.  Don't chase the Mike Williams game if Allen is healthy.  He will be too heavily owned for me.  I'd rather take a shot at Tyrell Williams.  Keep an eye on injuries this Saturday but for me in both slates I will load up on the studs from the Chargers and plug in value pieces from the other teams.

Bold Prediction: San Diego D breaks the slate with two defensive TDs (one pick six and one strip sack fumble returned)

                      -Mattyice @DFSToday