Tuesday, September 1, 2015

DFS Value Picks : NFL Week 1

As always, pre-season games come with unfortunate injuries that provide opportunities for other players to step up and produce for your Daily Fantasy lineups. Other scenarios, like position battles or suspensions also produce situations where you can find value in players that may not have previously been viewed as relevant.

Definition: A value pick is a player that is likely to outscore the designated price and allow you to allocate the additional cap space to other higher priced players

NFL Week 1 Value Picks: 

Sam Bradford, QB, PHI | Salary: $6,900 (DK) - Lots of snaps, lots of weapons against the Falcons' questionable defense on Monday Night Football.

Tyrod Taylor, QB, BUF | Salary: $5,000 (DK/FD) - Being named as Buffalo's starter qualifies Taylor as a value pick. Could produce through the air or on the ground. 

Doug Martin, RB, TB | Salary: $4,500 (DK) $6,900 (FD) - At these prices, I'll take Martin all day. This pre-season, we've seen what appears to be the Doug Martin we knew in 2012 and the Bucs could rely heavily on the run with a rookie QB. Could be highly utilized in GPP, so I'd use more in head-to-head.

Alfred Blue, RB, HOU | Salary: $3,600 (DK) $5,800 (FD) - With Arian Foster out, the start will go to Blue and this is a steal for a starting running back. Blue has filled in for Foster before and had some decent numbers. A favorable matchup at home against Kansas City who allowed 127.1 yards per game last season.

Markus Wheaton, WR, PIT | Salary: $3,800 (DK) - With key contributors out, the Steelers are going to need all the help they can get. I expect Wheaton will step up and give you some production at a very nice price point.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF | Salary: $3,700 (DK) $4,700 (FD) - Reports say that the rapport between Johnson and QB Phillip Rivers has been very good this training camp. With other wide receivers nursing injuries (although none are expected to miss playing time), Johnson could fill a spot on your roster Week 1 if you wish to improve other positions.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Daily Fantasy Football: Week 15 High Over/Under Plays

Decisions, Decisions. Week 15 offers several high over/under games to consider when setting your daily fantasy football lineups. At the time of writing, there are five games with a 50+ o/u.

Dallas Cowboys .vs Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) (55 O/U)

Dallas and Philadelphia leave a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the ball ranking 25th and 26th respectively in passing yards allowed per game. Rushing yards allowed per game is better for Dallas, in the middle of the NFL at 15th while Philadelphia allows RBs a lot of lanes and ranks 25th. This game should be a shootout by air and on the ground.

Players to consider:

Demarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (Draftkings - $9,500) - This could be a monster game for Murray but the price is high for one of the best RBs this season. I think he's worth every penny this week when there are good, cheap QB options.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles (Draftkings - $6,100) - In this match-up, I think Maclin is a great value. With the poor Dallas secondary, the Eagles should have better success in the air.

Atlanta Falcons .vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) (54 O/U)

Both teams are fighting for first place in their respective divisions so a win in this non-conference match-up is important. Both of these teams are capable of doing great things on offense but have struggled defensively. Another Sunday shootout in Atlanta.

Players to consider:

Roddy White, WR, Falcons (Draftkings - $5,800) - The status of Julio Jones for Sunday is still unknown but if he plays he could be limited and that means Roddy White could get additional targets.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons (Draftkings - $6,600) - OK, he's not the old Matty Ice that almost never lost at home in the Georgia Dome but as he showed last week against Green Bay, he can lead the offense down the field. This week, he's indoors at home against a Steelers defense that allowed 322 net passing yards to the Bengals in Week 14.

Martavis Bryant - WR, Steelers (Draftkings - $4,800) - Martavis is boom or bust but in this game he's worth a shot for the price. He's got a great opportunity to have a good game against a weak Falcons secondary.

Chicago Bears .vs New Orleans Saints (-3) (54 O/U)

Players to consider:

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears (Draftkings - $7,500) - I know, it's not pretty but Jay still produces from a fantasy perspective. The Saints allow 297 yards passing per game. Great pick if you want to save a little on your QB this week.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears (Draftkings - $5,900) - Expect his targets to remain high with Brandon Marshall out. He was seen limping after a leg/knee injury in the second half of last weeks game against Dallas but he'll have plenty of time to rest before this big game on Monday Night Football.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints (Draftkings - $6,300) - In a must win game, Drew Brees will have to look to his talented tight end. Big stage, big performance.

Other high O/U games to consider when setting lineups this week:

San Diego Chargers .vs Denver Broncos (-4.0) (50.5 O/U)
Buffalo Bills .vs Green Bay Packers (-4.5) (50.5 O/U)

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Daily Fantasy Football: Week 15 Injury Replacements and Value Picks

Week 14 saw a few key injuries that could provide some value picks this week. There are also several players that you’ll need to keep an eye on as the week progresses to determine the best alternative for your lineups.

Brandon Marshall – After leaving the game in an ambulance due to a serious rib injury that will end Marshall’s season, the receiving workload for the Chicago Bears will obviously fall into the hands of Alshon Jeffery (DraftKings - $8,200) and Martellus Bennett (DraftKings – $5,900). Josh Morgan or Marquess Wilson (DraftKings – Minimum Salary $3,000) could step up and give you some production at a low cost. 

Andre Ellington – Surgery to repair a hernia will end Andre’s season. Kerwynn Williams (DraftKings – $3,500) inherited the majority of the carries for Arizona in week 14 netting 100 yards on 19 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Bruce Arians has “a lot of confidence” in his three remaining runners, so it’s not set in stone that Kerwynn is the guy. This could lead to a timeshare situation for the Cardinals backfield. 

Percy Harvin – Likely to be out the final three games with an ankle injury that occurred against the Vikings. If you want to mess with the Jets’ offense, Eric Decker (DraftKings - $5,100) or Jeremy Kerley (DraftKings - $3,500) could be a good value at WR.

Andre Johnson – Will be going through the NFL concussion protocol this week after sustaining the injury in the 2nd quarter against the Jaguars. If Andre is out, defenses will key in on the dynamic DeAndre Hopkins (DraftKings - $6,100) and that could open the door for a WR like Keshawn Martin or DeVier Posey (DraftKings – Minimum Salary $3,000). Keep up with Andre’s status this week and word on the starting WRs for Houston. 

Keep an eye on: 

Cam Newton - Due to his unfortunate car accident on Tuesday afternoon, he has two transverse fractures in his lower back. Based on what we saw when Tony Romo had the same injury earlier this season, Cam could be out for at least one game. Derick Anderson would fill in if Cam can't go.

Julio Jones – The severity of Julio’s hip injury is still unclear. After a monster game against the Packers, he took an awkward hit late in the fourth quarter and did not return. Although there was much speculation about Roddy White’s ability to perform in this game, he looked OK, finishing with 3 receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. If Jones is out, Harry Douglas (DraftKings - $4,200) or even Devin Hester (DraftKings – Minimum Salary $3,000) could pick up some production against Pittsburgh. The Falcons could also look to their shifty RBs Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman (DraftKings – Minimum Salary $3,000) for short passes and screens. 

Rashad Jennings – Was active this week but could remain limited in practice and could still take a back seat or lose carries to Andre Williams (DraftKings - $5,500) who had a great performance in Week 14.

DeAngelo Williams – Status for Week 15 versus the Buccaneers is unclear but with a great performance from fellow RB Jonathan Stewart (DraftKings - $5,000), it’s likely to remain a timeshare in Carolina.

Zach Mettenberger – After leaving the game with a shoulder injury, it’s still not clear if Mettenberger will return this season. Jake Locker (DraftKings - $5,400) could be your starter in Tennessee.  

Colt McCoy – We could see Robert Griffin III (DraftKings - $5,600) in Week 15 due to a poor performance by McCoy and a neck injury.