Sunday 1/6/2019
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) 42 O/U
I don’t know if being a Ravens fan helps or hinders me in this analysis, but here goes nothing. As much as I want to believe that the ground and pound game plan can stick, I feel like it’s only a matter of time before teams adjust. Then I think to myself how come teams haven’t adjusted yet? It’s been 7 games with Lamar at the helm and with a 6-1 record, the Ravens can very well continue to be successful. One of those wins was in Los Angeles, just a few weeks ago against a tough Chargers team. So let’s look and see how that game went.
Week 16 BAL 22 @ LAC 10
This game was 6-3 Ravens going into halftime, and close throughout before the Ravens pulled away with the victory. Ironically enough as we talked about the ground and pound mentality, this was Lamar Jackson’s only game with over 200 passing yards (204) and his least amount of rushing yards (39) as a starter. The caveat to that 204 passing yards was a deep pass to TE Mark Andrews in a blown coverage where the defense bit on the play action leaving Andrews wide open for a 68 yard touchdown. Sure Jackson still had to hit him in stride, but it’s easy to do with nobody covering him. Back to the ground and pound, the Ravens did have 35 rushing attempts with Gus Edwards leading the way with 14 for 92 yards. They still relied on the ground game and I don’t see them changing what’s been working.
For the Chargers, their offense was relatively non-existent. A lot of that is because they were facing the best defense in the league, and some of that was due to not being fully healthy. Melvin Gordon was still banged up, Keenan Allen was just knocked out of the Kansas City game early the week before, and Phillip Rivers was … well actually he had no excuses. Rivers threw for a putrid 181 yards and two interceptions. Gordon only mustered 41 yards on 12 carries and Allen pulled down 5 of 8 targets for 58 yards. So the real question this week if the Chargers team can adjust and prevent the Ravens from dominating both side of the ball once again.
Average Joe 4 game slate analysis
Another game with a low over/under that will see most of the key players go largely under-owned because of stout defenses. The best piece with the highest upside for me on this slate would be Lamar Jackson, especially on DK where he is the 5th most expensive out of the 8 quarterbacks at $5700. He could be the highest scoring QB on the slate at possibly 15-20% owned. If you watched last week, he could have had 4 rushing TDs! 4!! For a QB that’s unheard of, and you have to remember 40 rushing yards for a QB is equivalent to a passing TD. So even though Jackson isn’t getting the passing yards, his rushing ability is enough to make him a top play. The only other pieces i would consider from the Ravens are Gus Edwards and their Defense. In fact, don’t be afraid to go a little contrarian and play all three
.
I’m not interested in anyone from the Chargers side, even on a small 4 game slate. The Ravens defense is no joke, and the Chargers on coming to the east coast from the west coast. Gordon and Allen are too expensive for me, and the outside Williams’ receivers may be worth a look in the single game slate but the Ravens cornerbacks are just too tough.
Studs (Highly Owned): Ravens Defense
Under the Radar (Medium Owned): Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards
Value (Low Owned): Mark Andrews
Dart Throw (Very low ownership, high risk): Kenneth Dixon
Average Joe single game slate analysis
I’m not really in love with the single game slate options for this game as far as prize pools go, but of course I’m going to throw in a lineup. I think I’ll have to start with Lamar Jackson at captain even though he is expensive. I’ll take all of the rushing yards on the Ravens side in hopes that they go for 250-300 with a couple TDs. That means plugging in Edwards and Dixon with Jackson. We might as well take a piece of all of the Ravens points with Justin Tucker at $3200.
Unfortunately we have to play at least one Charger, so I might roll the dice with a lower owned Tyrell Williams, or even the Chargers defense hoping for a Lamar strip sack fumble returned for a TD. Obviously plugging in the Chargers D is not optimal considering we have all of the Ravens offense but if you want that first place prize all to yourself, this would give you a great chance to do so. Imagine if Lamar, Edwards and Dixon rush for a combined 275 yards and 3 TD. At some point in the game Lamar gets sacked and fumbles with Joey Bosa returning it for a TD. Then in garbage time, Tyrell Williams catches a 60 yd TD pass that means absolutely nothing. Although for us it would mean A LOT! It could happen!
Three games down, one to go. Look out for the rest of the games coming soon. Always feel free to reach out to us with questions or comments by commenting on this post, twitter, facebook or email through the contact us button! Loving DFSToday? Head over to our store and grab some gear.
-MattyIce @DFSToday
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