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| "Andrew Luck" by Keith Allison is licensed under CC by 2.0 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5) 57 O/U
The NFL Divisional Round brings us a brand new week and a chance to rebound from last week. Those wildcard games were not fun to watch from a fantasy perspective, but we kind of knew that going into the weekend with all of the low game totals. This week starts out with a bang in a matchup with two offenses that can put up points quick; hence the 57 over/under! Let's not dwell on last week and get right into analysis for this game.
Playing at Arrowhead in December and January has historically been tough for opponents, but winning the big game for Andy Reid has also historically been tough. As a matter of fact in 2013 Reid and the Chiefs lost to the Colts 45-44 in the playoffs. He hasn't been better since then with Chiefs as he's only won one game in 3 other playoff trips. What does that mean for fantasy? Well, that makes me think that the Colts have a legitimate shot at keeping this game close and putting up some points. Not to mention that the Chiefs gave up 405 yards per game to opponents during the regular season, second worst in the league to the Bengals. Also, with their explosive quick hitting offense, the Chiefs have also allowed the second most plays from scrimmage to opponents. This means the Colts will have their opportunities on offense for some big plays, and this game could turn into a shootout.
Average Joe 4 game slate analysis
With all of the offensive fire power, this looks to be the game everyone will focus on and rightfully so. I wouldn't suggest fading this game totally, but keep in mind this is a 4 game slate and we need to differentiate somewhere while still getting pieces from it as it's the highest total on the board by about 7 points. On slates like these and obvious stack 'em up games, I personally like to grab the value from the high total games and fill in with studs from the other ones.
One of the value pieces I will lean towards is someone that I feel nobody will be on thanks to the big fat goose egg he put up last week. While this makes me cringe a little bit, Nyheim Hines will find his way into a lot of my lineups. I'm chalking up last week as an anomaly in a game where the Colts jumped out early and kept pounding the ball with Marlon Mack. This game script sets up completely different as the Colts could very well be playing catch up leading them to use Hines more as a receiver. On DraftKings he is only $3300 on and after last week I don't see how he will be more than 15% owned. I love pairing up Hines with Luck, then running it back on the other side with a Kansas City receiver. You could even throw Eric Ebron in there as he might go slightly overlooked at TE with Kelce and Ertz on the slate.
You could really differentiate by plugging in Kelce at the flex position to go along with Hines, Luck, and Ebron. You could look to pair up the Colts with a Chiefs running back as well but it's a little bit of a question mark as to who gets the workload even though Damian Williams has clearly been the best back since Kareem Hunt went out. Obviously you should feel good about rolling with any of the stud Chiefs players, but the goal in large field GPPs is to be unique in your lineup build. Also, the Colts defense has been pretty solid which makes me feel a little more comfortable about fading Chiefs players. This applies mainly to DK as their big tourney is the 4 game slate, while Fanduel is splitting theirs into two two-game slates. On that FD Saturday slate just get as many pieces from this game as you can.
Studs (high owned): Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, T.Y. Hilton
Under the radar (medium owned): Eric Ebron, Marlon Mack
Value (low owned): Chris Conley, Dontrelle Inman
Dart throw (very low owned, high risk): Nyheim Hines
Average Joe single game slate analysis
We have went pretty in depth with the plays from this game, so the goal of the single game showdown lineup is to see how many studs we can fit in. We know who is going to get the ball from both of these teams, but we can't fit all of those players into one lineup. I don't like playing QBs in the captain spot because they are usually the most expensive and unless they spread the ball around (not the case in this game) you will most likely have a receiver with a big game which offers higher upside in that captain spot. Again we will focus on DK but the plays could transfer over to FD. Just keep in mind captain salaries are more on DK, but they are the same as the FLEX spots on FD.
With that said, in the captain spot on DK I will be rolling with Eric Ebron. He gives the best bang for your buck as the 7th most expensive, and offers multiple touchdown upside. With Ebron in the captain spot you can pair him up with Luck. Then you can grab two studs from the KC side from Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, or load up with one of those and T.Y. Hilton. However you decide to go that would leave you around $3000 left per player. Cue up the infamous Nyheim Hines @ $2800. Man, it's not for the faint of heart but recency bias should be in full effect and Hines who on a single game slate at this price would normally be 30-40% owned, will probably be 15-25%. Once you put Hines in you can go with the KC defense to fill out the lineup. Remember that Tyreek Hill is the return man as well so if you have him and the KC defense you have the possibility on doubling up on a return touchdown.
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- MattyIce @ DFSToday
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