Monday, December 24, 2018

12/24/2018 - NFL Week 16 - Christmas Eve Showdown

   

     So who's bringing the presents tonight? We get another Showdown slate that includes the woeful Denver Broncos. Even worse, they are going against the tanking Raiders.  Two bad teams but that doesn't mean there isn't money to win.
 
     I could go back to my stack that had me in good position last time with the Broncos when I played Case Keenum, DaeSean Hamilton, and Tim Patrick. The Raiders pass defense is horrible and the Broncos pass offense still has a lot to prove with two rookie WR (Sutton, Hamilton) and a second year guy in Patrick.

     Believe it or not the Broncos are the better team so I think they will end up more popular. This has me leaning on playing more Raiders to try and be contrarian and gain that edge. The masses will want to play Derek Carr since he has looked a little better lately. I'd rather look to Jalen Richard especially on full PPR sites.  Don't be too afraid of the Broncos pass defense either as they are missing stud CB Chris Harris. Hello Jordy Nelson, who has seemed to remember he was once a pro bowl receiver.

Here are some low owned plays tonight that could get you into the big money by yourself:

WR Seth Roberts (2800 DK/ 8000 FD):
     Roberts has been getting a decent amount of targets all year with a depleted Raiders receiving core.  He also has the most rapport with Carr just based off time together with Oakland. Every time I don't play him he seems to vulture a TD from someone, so I'll take a look at him to get me that low owned TD tonight.

TE Lee Smith (200 DK/ 5000 FD):
     Now this one isn't for the faint of heart but if you really want to go out on a limb, the Raiders backup TE has had a TD in each of his last 3 games.  Each TD has also been his only target each game.  It seems like teams might be focusing more on Jared Cook in the red zone opening up Smith in two or three tight end sets.

     I'm still working on how I want to attack this slate.  I'm leaving towards the Broncos side with Keenum, Lindsay and one of the 3 receivers. After that you could try to squeeze in Carr and a couple other cheaper receivers.

Good luck tonight! Let us know your thoughts in the comments section or on Twitter @DFSToday

                                         - MattyIce @DFSToday

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