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| "Ezekiel Elliott" by Keith Allison is licensed under CC by 2.0 |
Saturday 1/5/19
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) 42.5 O/U
Week 3 seems like so far away now that we are in the first round of the playoffs. A team’s identity hasn’t even been established at that point yet and is constantly developing as the season goes along. When these teams met in week 3 their identities were very similar then as they are now. Run first teams with solid defenses looking to control the time of possession. Let’s take a look into the game stats and players that played a key role, then move on to some slate analysis.
Week 3 DAL 13 @ SEA 24
Seattle got up big in the first half putting up 17 points in the second quarter. This led to them pounding the rock on the ground with Chris Carson getting 32 carries for 102 yards and a score. Russell Wilson only threw for 192 yards but did manage to throw touchdowns to Tyler Lockett and Jaron Brown. A crazy stat from the Seattle box score saw 8 punts from the Seattle punter Michael Dickson. Of course that doesn’t matter for DFS but it does show that Seattle was content with playing the field position game and it obviously worked since they won.
On the Dallas side Dak Prescott really struggled to get anything going with only 168 yards in the air, 2 interceptions and a completion percentage under 50 percent. This was before the Amari Cooper trade so Geoff Swaim (now on IR) was the leading receiver with only 5 catches for 47 yards. Ezekiel Elliott only managed to get 16 carries but turned those into 127 yards. The game script didn’t work in his favor this game but as the season went on Elliott has become more and more involved.
Average Joe 4 game slate analysis
Ezekiel Elliott is the plug and play on this slate as the best RB by far. His ownership will be high but I would rather play him at home then Melvin Gordon @ Baltimore. Chris Carson is a solid option as well since Seattle has continued to feed him and rely on the ground game to get them where they are now. Vegas thinks this will be a close game and it makes sense that Carson won’t get faded out of the game because of the script. The Dallas defense is solid against the run, but not many running backs outside of Elliott and Melvin Gordon could get 30 touches.
On the passing side, I won’t be playing either QB. This makes sense if the game goes how I think it will and both teams work the clock and pound the ball with the run. There are better options on the 4 game slate at QB than Wilson and Prescott. I will be interested in some of the receiving game though as Tyler Lockett carries upside with his big play ability and he has a reasonable price tag. On the Dallas side, Amari Cooper would be the only receiver I would consider. I’m not going to chase the Blake Jarwin game where he put up 3 TDs in a game without Zeke and with the Cowboys basically playing for nothing.
Studs (highly owned): Ezekiel Elliott, Chris Carson, Amari Cooper
Under the radar (medium owned): Tyler Lockett
Value (low owned): Doug Baldwin
Dart Throws (very low ownership, high risk): Mike Davis/Rashad Penny, Michael Gallup
Average Joe single game slate analysis
On the single game slate we will again focus on DK but it can translate to Fanduel as well. Given the analysis we went with before, most people will flock to the run game in the MVP slot, plugging in Elliott or Carson. We are going to zig while others zag and roll with Tyler Lockett in that MVP slot. He is the 7th most expensive player that you can plug in but carries the upside that we talked about earlier. He also allows you more flexibility for the rest of the lineup build which has to include Zeke in my opinion. If you plug in Zeke along with Wilson (to pair him with Lockett) and Carson, you have most of the offensive fire power in the game. That would leave you with $3650 per player for your final two spots. I like Janikowski at $3000 if you are playing DK, then you multiple options for a flyer in your final spot. In order, if you are going with this build, I like Rashad Penny, Mike Davis, or even Jaron Brown. Brown is $200 so if you plug him in you can upgrade Janikowski to Michael Gallup if you so desire. One last thing to consider is to leave salary on the table in these single game slates to help differentiate your lineup.
Two games down, two to go. Look out for the rest of the games coming soon. Always feel free to reach out to us with questions or comments by commenting on this post, twitter, facebook or email through the contact us button! Loving DFSToday? Head over to our store and grab some gear.
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