 |
| "Deshaun Watson" by Keith Allison is licensed under CC by 2.0 |
Saturday 1/5/19
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-1) 49 O/U
It's so tough to play a team for the third time in the same season. It's good for us in DFS though because we get a good sense of how the game may go. Of course the playoffs are a different animal but there is definitely something to be said when common themes arise after the first two matchups. So first things first, let's look at some key stats from each game.
Game 1 HOU 37 @ IND 34 OT
I’m not going to sit here and regurgitate the box score but you should start your research there and I do want to hit on some key stats. Keep in mind that this game was before the Marlon Mack Era, so we saw Jordan Wilkins and Naheem Hines share duties and produce virtually nothing in the ground game. Hines was able to contribute in the passing game though with 9 catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns. Andrew Luck spread the ball around and had a touchdown pass to Pascal and Ebron while racking up a total of 464 passing yards. T.Y. Hilton was responsible for 115 of those yards on only 4 catches.
On the Texans side we also saw the passing game dominate as DeShaun Watson threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns, with 169 of those yards (on 10 catches) going to Deandre Hopkins. Another 109 of those yards went to Keke Coutee on 10 receptions. This is important because Coutee was the third receiving option in this game as Will Fuller was healthy. We saw Miller and Blue split carries for a total of 80 yards on the ground, while Watson chipped in with 41 of his own.
Game 2 IND 24 @ HOU 21
For the Colts this was the Luck and Hilton show as Luck threw for 399 yards and Hilton brought down 9 catches for 199 of those yards. Luck again spread the ball to Pascal and Ebron for touchdowns and 60 plus yards each. With Mack back he dominated the touches in the backfield but did nothing with only 33 yards on 14 carries, but did manage to get in the end zone.
DeShaun Watson really spread the ball around this game and no receiver had more than 5 catches even though he threw 27 completions. With no Coutee this game and the arrival of Demaryius Thomas, Hopkins only mustered 4 catches for 36 yards (his lowest output all season). The running game again had minimal impact with only a combined 54 yards from Miller and Blue on 20 carries (2.7 YPC) even though they were able to vulture a touchdown each.
Average Joe 4 game slate Analysis
Let’s take that all in for a second and think about the common themes. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the passing games dominated. I would expect more of the same with two of the top receivers and quarterbacks in the NFL. With this being the game with the highest over under of all 4 games, I would expect Luck, Watson, HIlton, and Hopkins to be very popular. The rushing game would be contrarian as people should look to running backs in other games to fill out their lineup build.
Studs (highly owned): Deandre Hopkins, Andrew Luck, DeShaun Watson, T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron
Under the radar (medium owned): Marlon Mack, Lamar Miller
Value (low owned): Naheem Hines (DK)
Dart Throws (very low ownership, high risk): Dontrelle Inman
Average Joe single game slate Analysis
I won’t go into too much depth here as we have really looked in depth at this game. Our goal with the single game is the same as the previous showdown slates. Find the one or two low owned plays and plug them in around the studs hoping to find lightning in a bottle. I have preferred the single games on DK all season so the build will be focused for that site, but can still translate to Fanduel. The one main piece I would look at more on DK is Hines, due to it being full PPR.
Last week we saw DeShaun Watson take over with his legs. I’m leaning towards him in the captain spot especially with the rushing upside. I would have to pair him up with Hopkins which means we are spending 60% of our salary on two players. Hines is way too cheap on DK at only $4000 and can offer tons of upside especially in the passing game. You could then try to squeeze in Luck or Hilton leaving just over 2k per player for two remaining spots. In come the dart throws. Alfred Blue is only 1400 and he gets a decent workload behind Miller who has always been fragile. Plug in Blue and that leaves you with either kicker in the final spot depending if you go Luck or Hilton.
One game analysis down, 3 to go. Look out for the rest of the games coming soon. Always feel free to reach out to us with questions or comments by commenting on this post, twitter, facebook or email through the contact us button! Loving DFSToday? Head over to our store and grab some gear.
-MattyIce @DFSToday
No comments:
Post a Comment